“Noon Sunshine-Young Scholars Seminar” is a regular academic exchange platform held by School of Finance. It aims to offer valuable occasions of communications among scholars in our college, between teachers and students, the domestic and the oversea. In this semester, we keep our original intention, set off for a new voyage. We will devote ourselves to fostering the academic atmosphere in the college, and promoting the academic level for both teachers and students.

The fifth session of “Noon Sunshine-Young Scholars Seminar” for the Spring Semester in 2025 is arranged as follows:

Lecture topic

Zodiac Year, Cautious Cheer: Analyst Superstitions and Forcasting Behavior

Keynote Speaker: Zhang Huaxi

Date

Thursday, April 16th, 2025

Time

12:00-13:30

Lecture Venue

Room 116, School of Finance

Abstract

Financial analysts serve as key information intermediaries by interpreting complex data, reducing information asymmetry, and providing forward-looking insights into firm performance. However, little is known about how personal beliefs and superstitions influence their professional judgment. This study investigates the impact of zodiac year superstition—a culturally rooted, time-varying belief in bad luck—on analysts’ forecasting behavior. We find that analysts issue significantly less optimistic earnings forecasts during their zodiac years. This effect is more pronounced among analysts who are younger, less experienced, from rural or less developed regions, or affiliated with smaller brokerage firms, and it becomes stronger under heightened market volatility and policy uncertainty. Additionally, analysts exhibit higher productivity during their zodiac years, suggesting a shift toward greater caution and diligence. These findings underscore the influence of deeply embedded cultural beliefs on professional behavior and contribute to the broader literature on behavioral finance.