“Noon Sunshine-Young Scholars Seminar” is a regular academic exchange platform held by School of Finance. It aims to offer valuable occasions of communications among scholars in our college, between teachers and students, the domestic and the oversea. In this semester, we keep our original intention, set off for a new voyage. We will devote ourselves to fostering the academic atmosphere in the college, and promoting the academic level for both teachers and students.

The ninth session of “Noon Sunshine-Young Scholars Seminar” for the Spring Semester in 2025 is arranged as follows:

Lecture topic

TFP Growth Regimes and the State Dependence of the Slope of the Phillips Curve

Keynote Speaker: Huang Hanguo

Date

Thursday, May 29th, 2025

Time

12:00-13:30

Lecture Venue

Room 116, School of Finance

Abstract

What is the relationship between the long-run productivity growth and the short-run trade-off between inflation and economic slack? This paper studies the state dependence of the slope of the Phillips curve on the trend productivity growth. By merging two longitudinal databases, I present estimates of the “average” New Keynesian Phillips curve for 17 advanced economies across TFP growth regimes since 1890. Following the state-of-the-art method, I estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve using trilemma monetary shocks as instruments and find that the Phillips curve is steeper (flatter) in high (low) growth regime. My proposed mechanism is qualitatively in tune with the recent trends of flattening Phillips curve and productivity slowdown amid rising market concentration in major advanced economies.