Recently, the Ministry of Education announced the results of the 9th Outstanding Achievement Award in Scientific Research (Humanities and Social Sciences) for higher education institutions. The paper titled “Population Structure, Systemic Risk Measurement, and Regulation: A Perspective Linked by Interest Rates” by Professor Fan Xiaoyun, Associate Professor Duan Yuejiao (pending appointment), and Associate Professor Yang Haoxi (pending appointment) from School of Finance was awarded third prize.

The award-winning paper decomposes systemic risk measurement indicators into a long-term equilibrium trend component and a mean-reverting disturbance component. Based on the long-term equilibrium trend of risk indicators, the paper pioneers the construction of a systemic risk measurement index determined by population structure characteristics. The research results show a significant positive correlation between the youth-to-middle-age ratio in China’s population structure, the benchmark interest rate, and the systemic risk default distance. The paper further calculates systemic risk boundaries under three different stress scenarios based on long-term forecasts of the benchmark interest rate, which can be used as regulatory boundaries by supervisory authorities. Finally, using population structure data from the UN Population Report for 2100, the paper conducts a long-term forecast of China’s systemic risk for the first time. The simulation results indicate that a lower birth rate will lead to a lower benchmark interest rate in China, resulting in greater systemic risk. Therefore, it is urgent to reform China’s population birth policies and implement policies to prevent excessive aging. Additionally, regulatory authorities should closely monitor the upper and lower boundaries determined by population factors to avoid unexpected default events.

It is reported that the Outstanding Achievement Award in Scientific Research (Humanities and Social Sciences) for higher education institutions is held every four years. It is a major initiative by the Ministry of Education to recognize and reward the outstanding achievements of humanities and social science scholars in universities, to encourage rigorous scholarship, bold innovation, and the creation of high-quality work, and to promote the flourishing development of philosophy and social sciences in higher education. The 9th Outstanding Achievement Award in Scientific Research (Humanities and Social Sciences) was determined through expert evaluations and committee deliberations, with a total of 1,491 awards announced, including awards for books and papers (1,195 items), consulting service reports (76 items), popular science works (20 items), and youth achievement awards (200 items).