On October 9, the second session of the Tutor Appointment in the fall semester of 2022, hosted by the Graduate Work Department of the Party Committee of Nankai University and undertaken by the School of Finance, was successfully held. Professor Li Quan, Director of the Institute of Finance and doctoral supervisor of the School of Finance, introduced the global capital market to nearly 200 graduate students from all over the university with the topic of The Long Cycle of Global Capital Market Under a Century of Changes.

In the first part of the lecture, Li Quan introduced the situation of domestic and foreign capital markets and money markets, showed the fluctuations of the stock market represented by the Dow Jones Index since 1890, compared and analyzed the recent ten-year treasury bond yields of developed countries and emerging markets, and expressed the view that the current capital cost of enterprises is relatively high and it is difficult to obtain vigorous economic growth in the next stage. Then, Li Quan analyzed the impact of each important historical period on the capital market through the trend fluctuations of the Dow Jones Index during the two world wars, the Great Depression, the Cold War and the Russian-Ukrainian war, and discussed the underlying logic of global capital market fluctuations.

In the second part, Li Quan explains the logic behind global conflicts. He pointed out that the inversion of the interest rate differential between China and the United States is not the first priority, but more important to pay attention to the problem of negative real interest rates in the United States and the phenomenon that the dollar index is still rising. Li Quan then analyzed the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the global economy, the deep-seated reasons for the current economic overheating of the United States, and the economic recession pressure of the European Union and Japan.

Finally, in the face of various current conflicts, Li Quan discussed China's sustainable development. Compared with the contribution of the world's major economies to global GDP, the overall trend of the United States is flat downward, the downward trend of the European Union and Japan is steeper, and China is in an upward trend, Li Quan pointed out that China's implementation of the me-oriented macro monetary policy provides important support for the domestic stable economy, and is less affected by external factors. Li Quan stressed, but external pressure is still there and fluctuations will always exist, we must follow the trend and seize the opportunity.

In the interactive session, Li Quan patiently answered hot issues raised by the students, such as China's macroeconomic trend in the fourth quarter and Fed interest rate increase. The interaction was warm and the atmosphere was good. Through the study and discussion of the keynote lecture, the students have a deeper understanding of China's macroeconomic trends and changes in the international financial situation